Harvey’s Hot Stove Report

You know, I’ve been working on this Kennedy article for quite some time now. It has clearly taken on a life of its own. This morning I woke to find rumors floating about that Caroline Kennedy has removed her name from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton as the junior senator from New York. Here we go again. I’m back on it, and this time I’m determined to finish it regardless of the continuous drama swirling around it. But in the meantime, I spent some time at the Cask n’Flagon (photo of the Cask included this time) last night and the talk turned to - you guessed it - the Red Sox. Yes, in spite of the excitement in Washington and the dense snow coverage around my home state, we’re thinking spring. Pitchers and catchers report next month, and I’m thinking I’d love to head on down to Florida to cover the Sox for a while. Tempting.

Nonetheless, when the talk turns to the Sox during the off-season, the table seems to fill up with people desperate for baseball. The winters are long here and there’s been a lot of snow (more coming tomorrow, I’m told). Talking about the Sox is a rite of Spring. So, of course, the first question from some Boston University student was, “What about Manny?” Indeed. What about Manny? Well, there’s nothing to report except he will not be coming back to Boston. In spite of the assertions of he and his agent, the lovely Scott Boras, people aren’t breaking down his door to get him. The Dodgers, his last roosting spot, offered him two years at $45 million with a third year option at $15 million. Manny wants a four-year contract. Period. He’s 37 this year and nobody is willing to give him that. The Dodgers aren’t budging. The San Francisco Giants are interested, but not in a long-term contract. And now that the Yanks have taken Mark Texiera, their eagerness for Manny has waned. Could he still end up in New York? He could, if he doesn’t mind cutting his hair…I mean, really cutting his hair. The Steinbrenners have a funny thing about appearance. A one-inch trim won’t do the trick in New York. Ask Johnny Damon.

Once we got on this topic - New York, that is - the panic set in for some of the youngsters in the crowd. One guy must have had too many beers (or perhaps too few) because he blurted out that the Yanks have been adding all these great players and we (the Sox) haven’t done anything. That’s just plain crazy talk. I told the guy that, look, we were one win away from a return trip to the World Series. The Yanks, on the other hand, had nothing in 2008. They didn’t even make the playoffs. Their team was in a shambles. There is really no “core” to speak of that they can build on, so they did what they do best. Spend money on every high-priced free agent that they can find, because they think a team full of superstars will bring championships. Nothing is further from the truth. The fact is that the Yanks have been spending money with reckless abandon for nearly a decade now, and have nothing to show for it. They haven’t won a World Series since 2000. Could they win next year? Sure. Anybody can win at any time. Will they win next year? I don’t think so.

Okay, the Yanks have signed three big-name players for over $400 million this off-season. Not only that, they’ve tied them up with long-term contracts. This was prudent for only one of them. Mark Texiera, who is admittedly a mega-player and is only 28 years old. Would the Sox liked to have had him? You bet. For whatever reason, it didn’t work out. Greed? Maybe. Another reason I heard was that his wife wanted New York, not Boston. Just a rumor, but it wouldn’t surprise me. They locked him up for eight years. We offered Texiera the same length of contract, I believe. That’s a good move for them. But giving CC Sabathia seven years and A.J. Burnett five years? I wouldn’t have done either. Sabathia is not the brightest light in the post-season, when teams need their ace the most. And Burnett? Well, I’ve never been a Burnett fan. The Sox, on the other hand, have followed the Gospel According to Theo. Stay patient. Keep your eyes open. Do what you need to do and nothing more.

For all their injury in 2008 - and it was significant - the Red Sox came within one game of returning to the World Series. The foundation is solid, the chemistry is real, and they’ve done it with a crop of young, homegrown talent filling in for the injured veterans. In previous ownership regimes, they just gave this young talent away. (Some day I’ll tell you about a guy named Jeff Bagwell.) Now, they nurture it. So, what have the Red Sox done this off season?

They’ve taken care of business by signing their homegrown talent. Early in the off-season, they locked up Dustin Pedroia, the 2008 league MVP, for six years. I don’t need to get carried away here. I’ve already written about Pedroia. You can just go back and read the first post. Since then, they’ve locked up Kevin Youkilis for four years with an option for a fifth. Youk finished third in MVP voting in 2008, and I believe he will be the MVP some day soon. In 2008, Youkilis batted .312 with 29 homers and 115 RBI and a .569 slugging percentage. In any other year, Youk is an MVP. It was just not going to go to anybody but Pedroia this year. Youkilis is a natural third baseman who was switched to first base in 2006 to make way for Mike Lowell (who came with Josh Beckett from the Florida Marlins). In just one year, Youkilis became one of the best first basemen in the league, winning the 2007 Gold Glove at his adopted position. Oddly enough, Youk would have moved back to third base had Mark Texiera come to Boston instead of going to New York.

On the pitching front, the Sox avoided arbitration and signed Jonathan Papelbon for one year at $6.25 million (a record for a reliever in his first year of eligibility). Everyone believes that they will now pursue a long-term contract with Papelbon, another homegrown talent who has established himself as the premier reliever in the league. In 2008, Papelbon went 5-4 with a 2.34 ERA, and set career highs in saves (41), appearances (67) and innings pitched (69.3). We also have Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Hideki Okajima hanging out in the bullpen. Let’s not forget Javy Lopez another arbitration-eligible reliever who quietly goes out and gets his job done. The Sox also rewarded him with a new contract. We’ve since traded Coco Crisp for 27-year-old Ramon Ramirez, a set up reliever with potential to be a closer. In 2008. Ramirez quietly had an impressive year for Kansas City, posting a 2.64 ERA in 71.2 innings. He struck out 70. Also coming on board is former Dodgers reliever Takashi Saito and lifelong Atlanta Brave John Smoltz. That’s quite a bullpen. Will Masterson go back to being a starter? If so, where will he fit?

The Red Sox have four solid starters in Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester (our official ‘go to’ guy in 2008) and Tim Wakefield who, year in and out, gives us tons of innings. They have Justin Masterson, who began his career as a starter but was converted to a reliever with amazing results in 2008. He could potentially return to a starting role. They also have Clay Bucholz, who had a rough and tumble year last year, but who regained his confidence working out in Arizona and is projected to be a major mound force of the future. Epstein is a big believer in Bucholz. (He could start the year in the minors but who knows?) To this we’ve added Brad Penny (a one-year contract). Even though he had shoulder problems in 2008 while with the Dodgers, he went 16-4 in 2007 with a 3.03 ERA (finishing third in Cy Young voting) and 16-9 with a 4.33 ERA in 2006. He made the All-Star team both years, and his health is not projected to be a problem in 2009.(Oh, by the way, the Sox want to lock up Lester as well.)

The Red Sox also announced the signing of 22-year-old Japanese amateur pitcher Junichi Tazawa to a three-year major league contract. Last year, he went 13-1 with 5 saves. He had a 0.80 ERA in 21 games, of which 11 were starts. Tazawa logged 113 innings, striking out 114 batters while walking only 15. At least one other team (can’t remember which one now) offered him a richer contract, but he cited Daisuke Matsuzaka’s presence in Boston a major deciding factor. Given the Sox’ pitching rotation, there’s no reason to rush Tazawa. Ask Matsuzaka how tough it is to come into a pressure situation, moving to a new country (and having to soak up a new language and culture), and playing the American game, which is more physically demanding (more games, longer seasons, more innings pitched).

The outfield is much clearer today than it was at the end of last year. With Coco Crisp gone, the center field job goes to Jacoby Ellsbury. Jason Bay takes left. He is committed to the Sox for 2009, but the Sox have indicated that they want to talk contract extension. He came in last year for Manny Ramirez and was under the glare here. He did a great job and became a fan favorite. Right field goes to J.D. Drew. Let’s hope he stays healthy for one complete season because he would be just awesome. Although hobbled with injury last year, he had a great year. We were lucky to be able to hang onto Mark Kotsay for insurance in the outfield and, for that matter, in the infield. Last year when Lowell was no longer able to play, Youkilis was moved back to third and Mark Kotsay became the every day first baseman for a while and did a terrific job.

Where are the holes????

Well, first of all, we have an issue at catcher. Jason Varitek refused arbitration and filed for free agency. Again, his agent is Scott Boras. According to rumor, Varitek was not aware that anyone signing him as a free agent after declining arbitration would have to give up a first round draft pick. That significantly reduced his charm in the market, to say the least. In fact, I don’t believe anyone has made an offer? If they have, I haven’t heard of it. Had he accepted arbitration, he would have guaranteed himself at least $10 million in 2009. I still think he’ll end up in Boston, but he’s made that task more difficult. In this market, a 36-year-old veteran who had an “off” year offensively isn’t going to get a long-term contract. The Sox have signed old friend Josh Bard to a one-year contract, but they did that more in response to Kevin Cash signing with New York. Just as Kevin isn’t a starter, neither is Josh. Would they love to have Jared Saltalamacchia of the Braves? You bet, but not giving up what the Braves want, which has reportedly been Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Who knows where this is going.

We still also have Julio Lugo at shortstop, a position the Red Sox would love to give to Jed Lowrie. Jed came up from the minors in 2008 when Lugo went down with an injury and he never looked back. Earlier in the offseason, Detroit seemed interested in Lugo, but I’ve heard nothing since. The Sox, however, would be willing to eat a significant portion of Lugo’s fat contract so I expect something might well get done before the season starts. If not, will they platoon Lowrie and Lugo? Lugo is making a lot of money. If nothing happens in the off season, the only way to showcase him would be to play him so other teams to see him.

There is also another level of activity that has been going on that I’m not going to include here because I don’t want to make the article any longer. So, my Yankee worriers, worry not. The Red Sox have had a much busier offseason than the New York Yankees. They have just done it for less money and a whole lot more quietly. In fact, I say let them take Manny too. They’ve already got to integrate three huge egos. Let’s give them one more, and a delusional one as well. It’ll certainly keep them focused on things other than baseball. So, get ready for another fun and successful baseball season.

By the way! If the wait is becoming unbearable, the Red Sox will have 15 players participating in the World Baseball Classic. Some will be playing for their native lands, like the Dominican Republic, Canada and Japan, which means they will actually be playing against each other. Should be fun!